Christie & Co forecasts huge shortage in elderly care home bed numbers in the South West by 2035

Specialist business property adviser, Christie & Co, has launched its ‘South West Healthcare Market Insight 2025’ report, which examines the current stock of elderly care home beds in Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, and West Dorset, the key demand drivers for beds in the region, and the significant opportunity for new build developments.

REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS

According to data produced by Christie & Co’s consultancy team, the proportion of the population in the South West aged over 65 years is 35 per cent higher than the UK average, and the proportion aged over 85 years is 38 per cent higher.

Average house prices across the region sit 10 per cent above the UK average, with 41 per cent of the population owning their home outright – this is 24 per cent ahead of the average. These elevated levels of affluence provide support for a sustainable private fee-paying market.

SUPPLY OF ELDERLY CARE HOMES IN THE SOUTH WEST

To cater for the increasing elderly population in the region, there are 722 care homes in the South West, 24 per cent of which are purpose-built, which is significantly below the national average of 44 per cent. As a result, homes are typically smaller, with an average of 35 bed spaces per home (compared with the national average of 42 beds), and only 26 per cent have wetroom facilities.

Cornwall has the lowest proportion of purpose-built stock, at only 15 per cent of the total, and Devon has the smallest proportion of stock over 40 bed spaces, at only 11 per cent.

A large proportion of existing providers report strong occupancy levels of 90.3 per cent, which is broadly in line with the national average.

CLOSURES AND OPENINGS

Since 2021, 64 care homes have closed in the South West, resulting in a loss of 1,813 care home beds in the region. Of those homes, the average size was 26 beds, and 53 per cent had en suite provision.

Over the same period, 1,914 beds have been constructed, so there has been a net gain of just 101 bed spaces in four years. The average size of new registrations in the region is 40, with Cornwall having the lowest at 27 and Dorset having the largest at 55.

As of June 2025, there are only 456 beds currently under construction in the region.

DEMAND VS SUPPLY

Comparing the demographic demand with the supply of elderly care beds, at present, highlights an undersupply of 16,973 wetroom beds (full market standard beds) across the South West.

Christie & Co forecasts that this will increase to a shortfall of 18,289 by 2030 and 23,056 by 2035. The largest deficit is forecasted to be in Devon, at over 10,616 beds over the next decade. This underscores the urgent need for strategic planning and investment to ensure that future demand can be met effectively.

Karun Ahluwalia, Director – Healthcare Consultancy at Christie & Co, comments,

“Smaller, converted homes are often well-placed to cater to their local markets, particularly in areas with lower population density. However, rising demand and a shortage of modern wetroom facilities present a strong opportunity for regional and corporate care operators to gain an early mover advantage by investing in new developments in the region. Alternatively, operators can look to retrofit or reconfigure older stock that may not align with the latest market standards, thereby enhancing their competitiveness and future-proofing the homes. With the sector evolving to meet growing demand, strategic investment in high-quality care facilities will not only address existing gaps but also position operators for long-term success in an increasingly competitive market.”

To read the full ‘South West Healthcare Market Insight 2025’ report, visit: https://www.christie.com/sectors/care/south-west-healthcare-market-insight-2025/